First published June 8, 1997
Newsweek magazine recently focused on what it called ``The day the
world
crashes,'' detailing what's scheduled to happen at midnight December
31,
1999, when all the computers in the world flash to a freeze from the
fatal
bug that prevents them from automatically moving to the year 2000.
According to Newsweek, this is the Y2K or Millennium
Bug
that scores of experts believe could bring our technological,
computer-dependent
world to a stand-still.
The simplest example of how this bug affects us is
the
ATM machine. Let's say I go to make a withdrawal on January 1, 2000.
The
ATM machine could easily think the year is 1900 and that either I am
broke
or do not have an account at the bank.
Contemplating all the world's computers misreading
the
year 2000 results in Newsweek's future visions of ``worst scenario''
and
``likely to happen.''
Under the worst scenarios,
traffic-control
systems go dead, assembly lines stop cold, bank records go haywire,
hospital
machinery stops functioning, radiation security systems fail in nuclear
power plants, military defense systems stall, and the entire government
benefits software screeches to a halt.
Among the ``likely to happen'' events are long
delays at
airports, slowed shipments of new goods and services, disruptions of
the
banking system that might make cash a handy commodity, malfunctions and
minor breakdowns in hospitals and power plants, temperamental military
weaponry
increases, and tax refunds and social security checks are delivered
later
than usual.
Adopting a similar stance toward the turn of the
century
but with a more positive mercenary outlook, a new book entitled
``Trends
2000'' urges us to pay attention to the coming century because if we
don't
we won't profit the way we should.
In fact, the new book's subtitle, ``How to prepare
and
profit from the changes of the 21st century,'' clearly suggests our
task
is to work toward ``profit'' in the coming millennium.
This book is a product of a
consortium
of experts tracking trends of the present and the past in order to
predict
the future.
Health food interests and home work spaces are among
its
visions for the 2000's. Ecotourism, increasing inner-directedness, and
a
citizens' revolt against the economic determinism that runs the
government
engine are among the possibilities these trend-trackers foresee.
While taking heavy potshots at politicians and
journalists,
these forecasts of the 21st century provide lots of fodder for anxiety
and
contemplation about the future of humankind, and more specifically
about
the future of America.
A writer in Futurist magazine a few months ago
warned that
our global dependence on computerized data storage could be an
attractive
target for international terrorists. A crash of the Federal Reserve's
system
for example, the writer warned, could cause chaos in the financial
centers of
the world.
My argument with these
harbingers
of and prophets of gloom for the 21st century is simply this: What's so
magic about the year 2000? Except for the computer's need to turn a
couple
of 9's into a couple of 0's, everything the anxiety producers are
telling
us is with us right now.
Do we truly expect the year 2000 to be much
different than
the year 1997? One need only contemplate a few random realities
of the present and ask,
will the 21st century change this?
Harper's magazine reports that the average person
begins
to become visibly agitated when his or her wait for an elevator exceeds
forty seconds. What will the 21st century do for that?
A study at the Georgetown University School of Law indicates that 25 percent of the boys in contemporary Roman Catholic families are urged by their parents to become priests and 15 percent of the girls in Roman Catholic families are encouraged to enter convents.
Will that change in the year 2000?
In February, Harper's
magazine
reported that the United States spends twice as much on defense as
China,
Russia, North Korea, Iraq, Iran and Libya combined. What the 21st
century
demands of us seems less important than what next year demands of us.
My fear is that we'll sit back through 1998 and 1999
expecting
something magic to happen in the year 2000 that will end or reverse our
national worries.
Most of Newsweek's ``likely to happen'' events are on top of us right now.
``Trends 2000'' are nothing more than ``Trends 1997
three
years later.''
Looking down the road three years and expecting
dramatic
change is like the smoker who plans to stop smoking ``next year'' or
the
dieter who plans to lose weight ``next summer.''
No matter how we try to delay it, the future is now.
Whether one views the coming century optimistically or pessimistically doesn't matter. The year 2000 and its events will arrive as surely as tomorrow, but tomorrow gets here sooner.
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Allan R. Andrews can be contacted at allan.andrews@reporters.net